Research

Cost / Token Predictor Is a Poor Predictor of Total Cost

On DeepSWE v1.1, the price per token barely predicts what a coding agent costs per task. Token volume does.

DataPrompt Research

Summary

DeepSWE v1.1 · Coding-agent benchmark

Cost per 1M tokens

Blended rate across input, cached and output tokens

  • Proprietary
  • Open-weight
$2.98
GPT‑6 Astraxhigh
$1.79
Claude Fable 5xhigh
$0.78
Claude Opus 5max
$0.48
Kimi K3max
$0.40
GPT‑6.1 Solhigh
$0.36
Claude Sonnet 5max
$0.30
GLM‑5.3max
$0.11
Gemini 3.8 Flashhigh
Source: Datacurve DeepSWE v1.1 trial data, each model at its best-scoring reasoning effort. GPT-6.1 Sol: cost per task as reported by OpenAI; per-token rate estimated from list prices. Not independently run by Datacurve.

Cost per task is the number to compare

A coding agent doesn’t answer once. It reads files, runs commands, checks results and tries again, sending its growing context back to the model at every step. The price per token tells you what each of those tokens costs; it says nothing about how many the model will use. Cost per task, the average spend for one complete attempt, captures both.

On DeepSWE the two rankings barely agree. Ranked by price per token, Claude Sonnet 5 is one of the cheapest models here. Ranked by cost per task, it is the most expensive, by a factor of two. GPT-6 Astra shows the reverse: the highest per-token rate, yet one of the lowest costs per task. Sonnet 5 at max effort averaged 72.6M tokens per attempt; GPT-6 Astra averaged 1.5M.

Model (effort) Pass rate $ / 1M tokens $ / task Tokens / task
Claude Sonnet 5 (max) 53.8% $0.36 $26.40 72.6M
Claude Fable 5 (xhigh) 69.9% $1.79 $13.41 7.4M
Claude Opus 5 (max) 73.6% $0.78 $11.84 15.1M
Kimi K3 (max), open-weight 68.5% $0.48 $4.65 9.8M
GPT-6 Astra (xhigh) 74.1% $2.98 $4.43 1.5M
GLM-5.3 (max), open-weight 69.0% $0.30 $3.99 13.4M
Gemini 3.8 Flash (high) 73.8% $0.11 $2.36 21.9M
GPT-6.1 Sol (high), reported 75.2% ~$0.40 $0.65 —

A strong result doesn’t need the most expensive run. Gemini 3.8 Flash passed 73.8% of attempts for $2.36 each, within half a point of the best measured pass rate (GPT-6 Astra’s 74.1%) at about half its cost per task and a fifth of Claude Opus 5’s.

Caching sets the effective price

Because an agent resends most of its context at every step, the bulk of its tokens are repeats. Providers bill a repeated prompt prefix as a cached read, at a fraction of the normal input price: GPT-6 Astra charges $1 per 1M cached tokens against $10 for uncached input, and GPT-6.1 Sol lists $0.10 against $2. On DeepSWE, cached reads were 89% of GPT-6 Astra’s tokens and 96–99% for every other model we measured.

That has three practical consequences:

Where open-weight models make sense

GLM-5.3 and Kimi K3 passed 69.0% and 68.5% of attempts, about 5 points behind the leaders, for $3.99 and $4.65 per task. That is 34–39% of Claude Opus 5’s cost per task. On hosted pricing alone they are not the cheapest option here: Gemini 3.8 Flash scored higher for less. Their case rests on control rather than list price:

If you self-host, plan for the same token volumes: 9.8M to 13.4M tokens per attempt here. Prefix caching in your serving stack matters as much as it does for hosted models. Check the license too: both models carry conditions for very large commercial users.

Method and caveats